Much of the current knowledge of the risks and impacts of climate in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are predominantly based on global, often low-resolution datasets and globally parameterized models which are often limited in their representation of regional heterogeneity. On the contrary, SSA displays considerable spatial heterogeneity in its exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, impact studies in many parts of SSA are still based on older generation climate models and have not been updated to reflect the improved knowledge of climate processes incorporated into the current state-of-the-art climate models.
This underscores the need for dedicated regional impact studies that explicitly represent local processes e.g land use management, at sufficient resolution to reduce uncertainties in projected impacts, and improve the quality and relevance of information required for targeted climate adaptation.
This study aims to use regionally disaggregated data and state-of-the-art climate models to improve the understanding of the impacts of projected 21st century climate on agriculture in the East and Horn Africa. The choice of the study area is motivated by the recent occurrence of successive droughts that have severely diminished food security in the region.